Second, the patients from these trials belonged to older cohorts, and might not be representative of current people with diabetes, as factors such as treatment patterns have changed since these trials were conducted. For example, validations of UKPDS equations in other settings have indicated that the cardiovascular risks are overestimated. First, the UKPDS and DCCT were randomised controlled trials, which implies that their results might not be generalisable to patients with diabetes in routine clinical practice. However, there are potential limitations in using these studies to provide data for HESMs. For the latter case, a recent systematic review showed that HESMs of diabetes usually use results from the Framingham cohort study, the UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) and the Diabetes Control and Complications Trial (DCCT). To predict the risk of future events, either HESM-specific risk equations are developed or equations from other studies are used –. One essential task of an HESM is to predict the risk of developing future events based on the demographic and clinical characteristics of patients, which in turn determine the expected costs and quality of life associated with different health states. They are used to quantify the lifetime benefits and costs of alternative technologies and interventions. These models are built on a combination of mathematical equations and computer software, and reflect key aspects of disease progression. Health economic simulation models (HESMs) are used to assist resource allocation decisions in different medical fields including diabetes –. This funding does not alter the authors' adherence to all the PLOS ONE policies on sharing data and materials. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.Ĭompeting interests: An unrestricted educational grant from Novo Nordisk Ltd is gratefully acknowledged. 2006-1660), a Government Grant for Clinical Research (ALF) and the Skåne Region (Ulf-G. The Health Economics Programme (HEP) at Lund University receives core funding from FAS (dnr. An unrestricted educational grant from Novo Nordisk Ltd is gratefully acknowledged. received funds from the Health Ministry of Iran to perform this research as a part of his PhD thesis. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.įunding: A.A.K. Received: DecemAccepted: MaPublished: May 9, 2013Ĭopyright: © 2013 Ahmad Kiadaliri et al. PLoS ONE 8(5):Įditor: Rudolf Kirchmair, Medical University Innsbruck, Austria Citation: Ahmad Kiadaliri A, Gerdtham U-G, Nilsson P, Eliasson B, Gudbjörnsdottir S, Carlsson KS (2013) Towards Renewed Health Economic Simulation of Type 2 Diabetes: Risk Equations for First and Second Cardiovascular Events from Swedish Register Data.
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